Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
